In early September, China Jushi issued a price increase letter, saying that it plans to increase the prices of glass fiber yarn and products respectively from October 1, 2021 (the signed contracts are still carried out according to the original contracts). The specific varieties and adjustment ranges are as follows:
The increase of thermosetting direct yarn shall not be less than 200 yuan / ton; The increase of thermoplastic reinforced yarn and glass fiber products shall not be less than 300 yuan / ton; The increase of ply yarn and chopped precursor shall not be less than 400 yuan / ton.
Previously, on September 1, 2021, Taishan glass fiber alkali free roving increased by 200 yuan / ton, and Chongqing Sanlei roving increased slightly.
This price increase needs to focus on three aspects:
First, the supply of short cut precursor has just increased. Under this background, the price does not fall but rises, which proves that the supply of lightweight materials is in short supply.
Short cut precursor is a kind of thermoplastic yarn. The downstream is mainly driven by the growth of sales of new energy vehicles and the weight reduction of traditional vehicles. For example, from January to July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China doubled year-on-year, accounting for more than 10% of the production and sales of new vehicles, reaching a record high.
Second, the demand for wind power yarn should be judged in the context of the era of new energy. It is no longer just based on the base disturbance, but long-term and high-speed growth.
On the one hand, the upsurge of "rush to load" has receded. In 2021, wind power is facing high base pressure, but the performance of wind power this year has exceeded expectations. As a "new" energy, wind power and photovoltaic are highly expected, and the demand for wind power yarn is expected to continue to grow high in the future. On the other hand, the unit consumption is expected to increase. In the era of parity, the cost of dependence is reduced. Large capacity, long blades and high towers are considered to be better means to reduce the cost of kwh power. Generally, 10000 tons of glass fiber is required for 1GW wind power blades. The increase of fan capacity and large-scale blades are expected to drive the increase of glass fiber consumption.
Third, the price increase echelon reflects rational decision-making and is in line with the trend of product structure.
The price of roving will be raised again for the whole category. This time, there are 2 subtle differences. The price will be raised according to the category and notified in advance. Retroactive to the previous comprehensive price increase (2020).
The price rise of glass fiber exceeded expectations, underestimated the difference between demand toughness and structure, and overestimated the supply and investment at home and abroad
The main reason is that the downstream is relatively scattered. It is difficult to quantify demand in both application fields and national markets. It is also difficult to track the progress of overseas and domestic supply delivery and shutdown. However, domestic supply accounts for a large proportion of the world, and price and inventory are the most direct embodiment of the relationship between supply and demand.
